Gold Glitters, Dollar Wobbles, Markets Regain Calm

Ahmad Mortazavi
Oct 18, 2025
4 min read

🌍Big Picture

Global markets regained stability after a volatile start to October. Gold surged past $4 300 per ounce, its highest level in history—before easing slightly as investors digested softer U.S. inflation data and calmer geopolitics. Oil prices slid to five-month lows, with Brent $61–63 and WTI $58–59, as cease-fire progress in the Middle East and rising supply expectations eased concerns about shortages.

Bond yields retreated further: the U.S. 10-year Treasury 4.0–4.1 % range reflected renewed conviction that the Fed will ease again before year-end. The dollar had its worst week since June, with the Swiss franc strongest in a month and the yen stabilising near ¥149 per USD. Bitcoin rebounded to ≈ $107,000 after a record high above $125,000 earlier in the month.

Equities regained footing: the S&P 500 +1.2 % w/w, led by strong bank earnings; Europe’s STOXX 600 +0.3 % as inflation eased to 2.2 %; and Asia advanced on stimulus optimism, with Japan and India benefiting from cheaper energy and solid domestic demand.

Key message: Policy easing is working its way through the system. Falling yields, softer energy prices, and a weaker dollar are setting the stage for selective risk-taking, especially in Asia, where green-tech exporters like BYD Co. are drawing renewed investor attention.

📊 Assets at a Glance

Equities

United States: S&P 500 +1.2 %; Dow +1.0 %; Nasdaq +1.4 %. Bank earnings outperformed; defensives faded as volatility eased.

Europe: STOXX 600 +0.3 %; autos weak on tariff risks; financials steady. ECB signals data-dependence.

Japan: Nikkei 225 +2.1 %; yen stability, policy support, and exporter optimism drive gains.

China: Flat; policy liquidity supports the property sector.

India: Sensex +0.8 %; energy import savings and strong rupee flows underpin confidence.

Latin America: Brazil +1.4 %; Mexico flat after prior rally in MXN.

Rates & Curves

U.S. 10-year: ≈ 4.0–4.1 % (mid-week low 3.97 %)—long end elevated even as front-end prices further cut.

2-year: ≈ 4.35 %. Steeper curve; mild duration bid.

Germany (Bund 10-yr): ≈ 2.63 %.

UK (Gilt 10-yr): ≈ 4.52 %. BoE slows QT.

Japan (JGB 10-yr): ≈ 1.6 %, multi-year high; BoJ remains gradual.

FX

Dollar Index (DXY): ≈ 98.2, marking its worst week since June.

EUR/USD 1.13–1.18 range, GBP/USD 1.30–1.35, USD/JPY 147–149.

USD/CHF ≈ 0.792–0.795 (Franc strongest in a month)

Commodities

Gold: Record $4,300/oz, then settled near $4,100–4,150. Drivers: lower real yields, central-bank buying, and risk hedging.

Oil: Brent $61–63 / WTI $58–59 — five-month lows as supply risks fade and demand expectations cool.

Copper: ~$10,600; range-bound.

Silver: ~$49/oz; tracking gold momentum.

Crypto

Bitcoin: Rebounded to $107000 after a record high above $125 000 and $18 billion liquidations early week.

Ethereum: ~$6 350; ETF flows support institutional interest.

📅 Key Events Next Week

Mon 20 Oct — China GDP (Q3) & Retail Sales

Beat (>4.8 % GDP): Risk-on Asia; copper ↑; EM FX bid.
Miss (<4.5 %): Growth concerns; USD steady; gold supported.

Tue 21 Oct — Eurozone PMIs (Oct Flash)

Above 50: EUR steady; Bunds sell off.
Below 50: Renewed recession chatter; defensives lead.

Wed 22 Oct — U.S. Housing Starts & Beige Book

Soft housing: Lower yields; carry bid.
Strong starts: Re-pricing of front cuts.

Thu 23 Oct — India Trade Data & RBI Minutes

Surplus narrower than expected: INR stable as RBI sees patient.
Large deficit: Temporary INR softness; oil import impact muted.

Fri 24 Oct — U.S. CPI (Sept — rescheduled)

Core ≤ 0.3 %: Confirms disinflation trend → USD lower, gold extends.
Core ≥ 0.4 %: Front-end sell-off; USD bounce.

💡 Investment Idea: BYD Company Ltd

Theme: EV dominance meets macro support

Macro tailwind: Lower energy and commodity prices have created a sweet spot for electric-vehicle manufacturers. As oil stays near $60/bbl and global bond yields ease, consumer affordability and financing conditions for big-ticket items like EVs improve. In China, recent stimulus for green manufacturing and export incentives are reinforcing BYD’s leadership in the global EV supply chain.

Company fundamentals

Global leader in EVs and batteries: BYD overtook Tesla in global EV deliveries in late 2024, holding its lead through 2025.
Q3 2025 results: revenue +12 % y/y to RMB 190 bn; net profit +14 % y/y; margin recovery to 6.4 %.
Diversified segments: passenger EVs, battery storage, buses, and semiconductors.
Exports booming: record overseas sales to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
Balance-sheet strength: RMB 140 bn cash; net debt/equity below 0.3×.

Catalysts

China’s October stimulus for consumer-durables & green-tech exports.
Declining lithium & nickel costs boost margins.
European tariff decisions (expected in November) could unlock further export gains if rates remain moderate.
Continued dollar softness enhances EM equity flows.

Why it fits this week’s narrative: BYD is positioned at the crossroads of two global shifts, falling oil prices and accelerating green investment. As the dollar weakens and policy rates ease, emerging-market leaders with tangible growth and global relevance are gaining investor favour. BYD offers exposure to both macro easing and structural EV growth in one of the most robust emerging markets.

Risk Disclaimer

The information provided in this analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Financial markets involve substantial risk, and investments can fluctuate in value, leading to potential losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before making any investment decisions, readers should consider their own risk tolerance and financial situation. The strategies and opinions expressed are based on current market conditions and may change without notice.